Fourth Generation Warfare

The Promising Threat of 4GW

War is a market. It needs advertisers, perceptual managers if you will, to sell the products of war --- community dissolution, death, fear, and a boat load of money. For thousands of years this ritual of death has been repeating itself in variety of outward forms built on the same inner drive, namely profit. Currently nine “major” wars, defined as those with more than 1,000 deaths per year, are being fought and a slew of “minor” wars, defined as those with less than 1,000 deaths per year, continue to drag on. Although the goals of war stay the same, the ritual forms are changing. 

It all starts on the 23rd of May, 1618. Ferdinand II, soon-to-be King of Bohemia, sends along two representatives to work out a deal with his detractors, but they are “defenestrated” instead --- aka thrown the fuck out a castle window. On the backs of these poorly bruised souls rise the bloody Thirty Years' War. It was resolved (a term used lightly) by the Peace of Westphalia, whose carefully crafted inkblots grow the nation-state structures that dominate the geopolitical arena for centuries. 

According to William S. Lind, since the 1648 signing of the Peace of Westphalia, nation-states have been progressing through three generations of warfare. Each stage requires group cohesion; it's vital for any collective organization that asks/tells its members, "go kill...oh yeah, you might die too". Nationalism, racial superiority, and the endless "fighting for freedom" variations repeated by the propaganda machine become the ideological strings that weave this cohesion together. Now back to the progression.

First Generation Warfare: A tactic of mass human warfare guides this era of low-tech design --- whoever kills or destroys the most wins. The military culture of strict orders, obedient soldiers, and a centralized command becomes formulated. Examples include the Napoleonic War and U.S. Civil War.

    Second Generation Warfare: A tactic of firepower warfare guides this era of growing industrialization --- whoever wears down the enemy with more firepower and mobility wins. The military ethic of obedience and hierarchical command becomes standard. Examples include the U.S. Civil War and WWI.

Third Generation Warfare: A tactic of maneuver warfare guides this era of innovative technological design --- whoever bombards the enemy greatest and then penetrates furthest, wins. The Blitzkrieg tactic exemplifies this. The military culture becomes less obedient and centralized, with on-the-ground innovation being prized. Examples include WWII.

The above three generations of warfare are dying because the nation-states they are fitted to are dying. These bulky behemoths are phasing out, with centralized command being to slow and the legitimacy waning. So when cohesion is flimsy, double up on the propaganda!

Actual War ---> Media Re-Presentation ---> Public Perception 

The field of Information Operations (IO) works by the integrated employment of: Electronic Warfare (EW), Computer Network Operations (CNO), Psychological Operations (PSYOP), Military Deception (MILDEC), and Operations Security (OPSEC). These age-old tactics (minus EW and CNO) were/are used by nation-states because they work, and because it works, they are used in an emerging new generation of warfare.

Global Guerilla's is the name John Robb uses to refer to those practicing the form and ethic of this new warfare.

Fourth Generation Warfare: A tactic of guerrilla warfare guides this era of high-tech design and communication --- whoever can disrupt enemy systems with the greatest return on investment, wins. The military culture is decentralized and more fluid. Examples include 9/11 and the Iraq War.

Moving beyond the bulky clutter of nation-states, the participants in 4GW are decentralized non-state entities that are self-funded, flexible, fast, and efficient. They're able to gain HUGE return-on-investments (ROI's) by adhering to this model --- the World Trade Center attacks cost $500,000; the resulting War on Terror cost $500,000,000,000! 

In this highly connected world where transcontinental communication is simpler than tying shoes, Open Source Warfare (OSW) becomes the model for success.  By sharing their information openly (to those in the same "group"), it can be studied and tweaked to allow for a self-correcting emergent intelligence to arise. Groups that might not have direct communication with others can still contribute to this overall intelligence by paying attention to signs, by coordinating their actions through "stigmergy"...

 

"How did that group get portrayed in the media?"

 

"It seems that group didn't get too far, too much government security --- hit another spot." 

 

"What was the quantitative force of the security backlash?"

 

"What was the qualitative impact of that groups attack?"

By scrutinizing attacks carried out by other non-state entities, the source code becomes more intelligent. The result is a more focused approach to battle...and a far bigger pain in the ass to hierarchical nation-states. Global Guerrilla's don't need to win by brawn and behemoth technology (first generation through third generation) because: 1. they can't compete with the resources of nation-states and 2. they can cause far more damage by disrupting key systems (like oil pipelines in Iraq). The ease to which Global Guerrilla's construct weapons and move about places the specter of unpredictable black swan's on the table of a nation-state's central command. With a system entrenched in obedience-ethic and predictability, this is harrowing. 

This Fourth Generation of Warfare presents the opportunity for decentralized non-state entities to be on par with over-sized nation states by strategically disrupting the key systems that keep these bloated dinosaurs running. Hmmm.... does anyone else's toes tingle?